Impact of Demographic Change

It is vital that we understand how the population is changing in different ways in different parts of the country.

This N8 research programme highlights population projections for the North of England and how this creates opportunities for economic growth, enterprise and employment, but also challenges for public services, including increased medical and social care costs.

Key population trends in the North of England

There are significant changes taking place in Northern communities and across Europe, due to the effects of migration and the baby boomer generations moving into older age. The decade 2010-2020 is the last where the workforce in Europe increases; after 2020, the retirement of the baby boomers will reduce the number of available workers.

Impact of these changes

This has implications for the structure and shape of the labour market – and this is already prompting policy changes in areas like retirement ages and the funding of long term care. But there are also business opportunities as people work and live longer; including development in new specialist products targeted at older people, such as clothing, health care services and financial services. There are also emerging new models of entrepreneurship and community activism lead by older sections of the community or people from migrant communities.

How can we respond to these changes?

This study looked at all of these issues and ways in which we maximise the economic benefits and minimise the economic costs of the population changes in our society. Through this research we will develop a range of ideas and proposals to ensure communities in Northern England can effectively address the economic implications, and adapt and respond to these changes.

Key research questions for the project

There are three key questions addressed in the research:

1. The reciprocal relationships between economic and demographic change.
2. How and why the geography of these changes varies within Northern England and city regions within it.
3. The ways in which policy can maximise economic benefits and minimise costs.

Project Team

Four teams, drawn from N8 Universities, have been established to undertake work strands to explore key dimensions of these changes across Northern England:

• Modelling Demographic Change - lead: Professor Phil Rees.
• Analysing Future Demand for Skills and Labour – lead: Professor Alan Harding.
• Exploring Entrepreneurship and Business Growth – lead: Professor Tom Cannon.
• Scoping Future Infrastructure Planning: Housing and Health Care – lead: Dr Lisa Buckley.

Key Findings

The recently published report  highlights how the populations of key cities of the North of England will grow, age and become more ethnically diverse over the next 30 years.  The report proposes key areas that LEPs and their partners should focus on to maximise the economic benefits of population dynamics, and key challenges which will need to be addressed.

REPORT LAUNCH

The report launch review and presentation slides can be viewed here.

Contact

Academic Director, Professor Ray Hudson
Email: ray.hudson@manchester.ac.uk